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Grain Commentary
Weekly Outlook
October 26, 2006

Corn Outlook

The strength in corn continues to defy most fundamental logic, which is driving traders stark, raving, mad, crazy! While bullish demand issues exist, what is really driving the market into the “stratosphere” is the vast amount of money pouring in from speculators and the commodity funds. The long position of the funds grew 160 M.B. last week to 1.315 B.B., including options. This compares to the record of 1.355 B.B. made earlier this year. My greatest fear is that when the rally ends and the funds liquidate, trading conditions will become ugly. Just look at what happened to the tech stocks a few years ago when the “bubble burst.” Export inspections last week were a marketing year low at 27.5 M.B., and below the average needed to reach USDA’s projection of 2.250 B.B. This may indicate that users are backing away from higher prices. Harvest is behind at 53 percent complete compared to 63 percent a year ago and 57 percent for the five-year average.

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