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Corn Outlook:
Corn harvest is in its final furlong at 75 percent complete and should be wrapped up within the next couple of weeks. At that time, the focus will center upon crop developments in South America and exports. According to USDA’s latest estimate, production in Argentina and Brazil is expected to be 104 million tons, down 7.5 million tons from a year ago. However, world stocks are ample. Currently, the fly in the ointment for corn is exports. They trail last year by 28 percent. Inspections last week were a marketing year low at 16.2 MB. We must ship 37.7 MB each week to reach USDA’s target of 1.850 BB. At the current pace, shipments are falling seriously short. In other developments, the funds have flipped from a long position of 110 MB, and are now short 135 MB. Unless weather poses a problem in South America, they are likely to stick with this position.
Bean Outlook:
Soybean harvest is 87 percent done with most of the major producing states close to wrapping up another season. All eyes have been on the dry conditions in central Brazil the past couple of weeks, in addition to the torrid pace of U.S. exports. However, rain has fallen in Brazil recently, which should improve planting and production prospects. Currently, the USDA projects their production at 100 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million from a year ago. Exports have been red hot in October with inspections last week a marketing year high at 98.1 MB. However, the pace is unlikely to continue and should cool off early to mid November. This has occurred like clock work in previous years. In other developments, the funds added 25 MB to their short position last week increasing it to 55 MB. Unless a serious weather problem arises in South America, their position will likely get bigger.
Bean Outlook:
Soybean harvest is 87 percent done with most of the major producing states close to wrapping up another season. All eyes have been on the dry conditions in central Brazil the past couple of weeks, in addition to the torrid pace of U.S. exports. However, rain has fallen in Brazil recently, which should improve planting and production prospects. Currently, the USDA projects their production at 100 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million from a year ago. Exports have been red hot in October with inspections last week a marketing year high at 98.1 MB. However, the pace is unlikely to continue and should cool off early to mid November. This has occurred like clock work in previous years. In other developments, the funds added 25 MB to their short position last week increasing it to 55 MB. Unless a serious weather problem arises in South America, their position will likely get bigger.
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