If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in[…]
Corn Outlook:
There is very little positive news for the bulls to latch onto in corn. Remnants of Hurricane Beryl have moved through the Midwest and are a welcomed sight for areas that have been dry. In addition, non-threatening conditions are forecast through the third week of July. Following a decline in the crop rating since early June, there was a one-point improvement last week to 68 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. This compares to last year’s rating of 55 percent and is just above the 10-year average of 67 percent. Looking at exports, they are mostly stagnant. Inspections last week were 40.3 MB and below the average of 54.6 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 2.150 BB. Currently, they are on track for shipments of 1.880 BB. The bottom line in corn is the funds are short a hefty 1.530 BB, but a catalyst is lacking that prompts them to cover.
Bean Outlook
While time is running out for weather being a factor for corn, it could still be an issue in soybeans, especially during August. However, no threats are present for the moment. Meanwhile, the crop rating last week improved one-point to 68 percent in good-to-excellent condition. This is well above last year’s rating of 51 percent and compares to the 10-year average of 64 percent. Looking at exports, no light is shining here. Inspections last week were 10.0 MB and below the average of 20.3 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 1.7 BB. China only took 110,000 bu. They have not taken a shipment exceeding 1.0 MB since early June. The bottom line in soybeans is the funds are short 730 MB. However, that is below the peak set in February of 970 MB, which means that they may still add to their position
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat would probably be trending higher if it were not for the weakness in corn and soybeans. Hedging pressure is becoming less of a factor as harvest is 63 percent complete, which is well above last year’s progress of 43 percent and the average of 52 percent. Meanwhile, exports need improvement. Inspections last week were 12.5 MB and below the average of 15.6 MB that must be shipped weekly to reach USDA’s projection of 800 MB. Currently, wheat has the brightest fundamentals of the grains, but a spark is needed to cause the funds to lighten their short position that presently stands at 460 MB.
Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.