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Corn Outlook:
The International Longshoreman’s Union went on strike this week which will impact facilities at the East and Gulf coast ports. While bulk cargoes, such as grains, are not expected to be directly affected, containerized shipments of other ag products will be impacted. This will create shortages and comes at a bad time for consumers, who are already strapped for cash, as prices will be driven higher for many products. In other matters, harvest is progressing without interruption and is 21 percent complete compared to 18 percent for the average. Export inspections last week were a marketing year high at 44.8 MB and must average 45.1 MB each week to meet USDA’s target of 2.3 BB. Currently, we are on track for shipments of 1.850 BB. The bottom line in corn is the supply is large, and prices have been rising the past few weeks on the heels of fund short covering.
Bean Outlook
While the longshoreman’s strike will not likely have a major impact on soybeans shipments, meal and oil could be significantly affected as they are shipped in containers. If the strike drags on, South America stands to gain at our expense. In other developments, harvest is progressing quickly at 26 percent complete compared to the average of 18 percent. Export inspections last week were a marketing year high of 24.8 MB with China taking 7.3 MB. While the export pace has picked up since the marketing year began, we must ship 38.0 MB weekly to meet USDA’s projection of 1.850 BB. Currently, shipments are not up to speed for this to occur. The bottom line in soybeans is prices have been rising from fund short covering and concerns of dryness in central Brazil. However, that may diminish as their rainy season is beginning and showers are forecast next week
Wheat Outlook:
Traders continue to monitor global weather and increasing geopolitical concerns in the Mideast. Conditions remain dry in the Black Sea Region, but Australia recently received showers. Meanwhile, planting of the winter wheat crop in the US is progressing without interruption and is 39 percent complete compared to 38 percent for the average. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 19.7 MB and above the average of 14.9 MB that must be shipped weekly to achieve USDA’s target of 825 MB. For now, they are on track for surpassing that mark. The bottom line in wheat is that provided exports stay firm, and concerns of the crop in the Black Sea remain, the market should continue higher.
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