If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in
Corn Outlook:
Concerns of a trade war between the U.S. and its trading partners may have eased for the moment but will likely flare up again when the deadline approaches on April 2nd for tariffs on certain products to take effect. In the meantime, the focus is turning to the prospective planting report on March 31st, and weather. Currently, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought in the upper Midwest and sections of the western Corn Belt that will be watched closely in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, corn exports remain impressive. Last week, inspections were the second highest of the season at 65.2 MB with Mexico and Japan the largest buyers. Right now, the question is, will the current pace of exports continue after April 2nd?
Bean Outlook
Soybeans have been in the doldrums over the past couple of weeks as there is not much market moving news. The threat of tariffs continues to weigh on the market, and Brazil’s harvest is rolling along at 66 percent complete. Furthermore, exports continue to decline. Inspections last week were 23.7 MB with China taking 15.4 MB. This was the largest shipment taken by them in three weeks. However, deliveries to China are down 74 percent since mid-November, while our overall shipments have declined 67 percent. The bottom line is there may not be much news to influence the market until the prospective planting report on March 31st.
Wheat Outlook:
The winter crop is beginning to green up and emerge from dormancy leaving it susceptible to adverse conditions which may offer support. Furthermore, SovEcon lowered Russia’s wheat exports for this month to 1.5 million tons from 1.9 million in February which might swing business to the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. exports remain erratic with inspections last week of 18.3 MB, nearly 10 MB more than the previous week. USDA’s current export projection is 825 MB, but at the current pace, they are on track for 750 MB.
Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned