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Corn Outlook:
The bulls got spooked earlier this week in corn from the reality that President Trump might carry out his threat of imposing an import tariff this weekend against China, Mexico, and Canada. However, the market recovered midweek on dry weather concerns in Argentina. These two influences have kept the market on pins and needles and has sparked an increase in volatility. Meanwhile, Argentina is lowering their export tax which will increase exportable supplies. This could create a speed bump for prices as the funds are holding their largest long position since November 2022 which means additional bullish input will be needed to keep the rally intact. Looking at exports, after two weeks of posting a marketing year high, inspections fell to 49.0 MB last week. They must average 53.0 MB on a weekly basis to meet USDA’s projection of 2.450 BB, which may present a challenge.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans are meeting resistance from declining exports and expectations of a record crop in Brazil even though private sources have recently lowered their estimates. Meanwhile, Argentina’s reduction of their export tax will increase exportable supplies. Looking at exports, inspections last week of 26.7 MB were the smallest since late September. China took 5.1 MB, their lowest shipment since the marketing year began. Since mid-November, deliveries to China have fallen 70 percent while our overall shipments have declined 53 percent. The bottom line is that even though Brazil’s harvest is getting off to a slow start, a record crop expected, and additional price gains may be difficult to attain.
Wheat Outlook:
There is not a lot of news in wheat. With the U.S. crop dormant for the next several weeks, there may be little input for traders to latch onto. Meanwhile, export inspections last week of 17.8 MB were the best seen since late September. However, they were below the average of 19.1 MB that must be shipped weekly to reach USDA’s target of 850 MB. One supportive aspect for the market is that SovEcon recently lowered Russia’s exports 900,000 tons to 42.8 million.
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