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Corn Outlook:
Corn finds itself in a dilemma as ending stocks are their highest in 3 years, stocks-to-usage have been rising since 2020, China’s imports were lowered 2.0 million tons in last week’s crop report, and harvest is in full swing with few interruptions. Looking at exports, inspections were disappointing last week, a marketing year low of 16.941 MB. They must average 46.5 MB each week to meet USDA’s target of 2.235 BB. Right now, they are on track for 1.818 BB. Meanwhile, harvest is progressing without any delays and is 47 percent complete compared to 42 percent a year ago and 39 percent for the average. The bottom line in corn is that values have fallen to a level considered attractive by some, but others are keeping their distance.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans are spinning their wheels from the forecast of record world stocks, record global stocks-to-usage, U.S. ending stocks at their second highest level, and the outlook for Brazil to produce a bumper crop. Meanwhile, exports were shining last week with inspections a marketing year high of 57.8 MB. China took shipments of 39.3 MB, their highest for the season. As mentioned in previous comments, China’s interest will likely peak in November when it usually turns to Brazil. In the meantime, harvest is progressing at breakneck speed and is 67 percent finished compared to 57 percent a year ago and 51 percent for the average. The bottom line in soybeans is the bulls are hiding for the moment with a weather scare likely needed in South America to stir their interest.
Wheat Outlook:
Russia and eastern Europe continue to have weather issues, but the market has struggled because of weakness in corn and soybeans. Exports are not garnering much interest as inspections last week were 13.6 MB and below the average of 14.9 MB that must be shipped weekly to achieve USDA’s forecast of 825 MB. Since late September, the pace of shipments has fallen 19 percent. Meanwhile, winter wheat planting is chugging along at 64 percent done compared to 65 percent a year ago and 66 percent for the average. The bottom line in wheat is the fundamentals are improving, but the fund selling in corn and soybeans is keeping the bulls at bay.
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