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Corn Outlook:
Corn is beginning to make the transition from a supply to a demand driven market. This is seen from Mexico increasing their purchases recently, and the December-July spread narrowing nearly 12 cents in the last month reflecting an increase in demand. Last week, export inspections exceeded the previous week at 39.6 MB. However, they were below the average of 46.5 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s projection of 2.325 BB. Meanwhile, harvest is in the back stretch at 65 percent complete compared to 55 percent a year ago and the average of 52 percent. The bottom line in corn is that price gains could be limited as there is a long way to go in working through the current supply. Also, plenty of competition will exist from Brazil as private sources forecast their production to rise 3.5 percent to 119.7 million tons for 2024-25.
Bean Outlook
Soybean prices have stabilized in their decline that began last month, as purchases from China have been on the upswing. Last week, export inspections were a marketing year high of 89.4 MB with China taking 37.2 MB. However, as mentioned in previous comments, their interest tends to peak in November and turn to Brazil. Currently, Brazil is in the midst of planting which is 18 percent complete compared to 30 percent a year ago. Their planting has been slow because of dry weather. However, their wet season has begun, and conditions are becoming more favorable. Recently, a private source forecast a 12.7 percent increase in Brazil’s production to 166.0 million tons for 2024-25. In other matters, harvest in the Midwest is progressing at a fast clip at 81 percent complete compared to 72 percent a year ago and the average of 67 percent. The bottom line in soybeans is that unless Brazil runs into trouble with weather, there may be little upside price potential.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat has been marking time and shown little response to dry conditions in the southern Plains and the Black Sea region. It seems to be waiting for a catalyst to spark an interest. Meanwhile, planting of the winter wheat crop is progressing with minimal delay at 73 percent complete compared to 74 a year ago and the average of 76 percent. Looking at exports, they have slipped since the third week of September with inspections last week only 9.8 MB. This is well below the average of 15.1 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 825 MB. The bottom line in wheat is that the funds are short and show little interest in covering for the moment.
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