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Corn Outlook:
The grains have a lot on their plate going into next week. First is the quarterly grain stocks and prospective planting report on Monday that has the reputation of being a game changer. Expectations are that there may be 3.5 million more acres of corn planted this spring than a year ago. Second, April 2nd is the deadline when import tariffs take effect on products from Canada, China, Mexico, and other trading partners. Depending upon how they react, our exports could be impacted. Meanwhile, corn inspections last week were vigorous at 57.9 MB, and above the average of 51.2 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s projection of 2.450 BB. Mexico and Japan were the largest customers. Right now, the bottom line is that we have to wait and see how the tariffs play out, and our trading partners reaction when they go into effect April 2nd.
Bean Outlook
Expectations are that the prospective planting report on Monday may show 3.3 million fewer acres of soybeans planted this spring than a year ago. However, the report may not trigger a sharp reaction from traders as any reduction in acres could be offset by the record crop being harvested in Brazil. Furthermore, a response by China to the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration, scheduled for April 2nd, may only produce a minor reaction as China is currently importing most of their soybeans from Brazil. Last week, export inspections were 30.2 MB with China taking 14.8 MB. Since mid-November deliveries to them have fallen 75 percent, while our overall shipments have declined 67 percent. The bottom line is that if there are no stark surprises next week in the report, or a sharp reaction from China, a weather event during the growing season may be needed to stir bullish sentiment.
Wheat Outlook:
While poor conditions for wheat exist in much of the Black Sea region, and it is mostly dry in the southern Plains, these issues are being overshadowed by Ukraine and Russia reaching a U.S. brokered cease fire agreement in the Black Sea after three years of conflict. This would facilitate a greater flow of exports from that region. Furthermore, U.S. exports are offering little support. Last week, inspections were 17.8 MB, and below the average of 21.5 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s projection of 835 MB. Currently, the supportive factor for wheat is the funds are short 480 MB and could cover if conditions in the Plains deteriorate in the weeks ahead.
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