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Corn Outlook:
The focus in corn this week is the Pro Farmer crop tour, and how it stacks up with USDA’s yield estimate of 183.1 bpa. Some think that the final yield could be higher than their forecast. Regardless of whether Pro Farmer’s findings are higher or lower, ending stocks of 2.0 BB are more than abundant. Meanwhile, a bright spot is that usage has been improving, although at a slow pace. The problem is that stocks have been out pacing usage since 2020. Looking at exports, they have risen 20 percent in the past four weeks with inspections last week at 45.9 MB. However, the pace is still short of reaching USDA’s target of 2.250 BB. The bottom line in corn is that demand is slowing improving, but supply will continue to be an issue unless a production threat arises in South America later this winter.
Bean Outlook
Like corn, the focus in soybeans this week is on the Pro Farmer crop tour and how their findings compare with USDA’s yield estimate of 53.2 bpa. Current ending stocks of 560 MB are excessive, and the third highest on record. Meanwhile, global stocks are a record 134.3 million tons and have been growing since 2021. Furthermore, domestic stocks have been outpacing usage since 2020. Looking at exports, inspections last week improved slightly at 14.6 MB, but the pace is running short of meeting USDA’s projection of 1.7 BB. China took 2.0 MB which was their second largest shipment since early June. The bottom line in soybeans is that stocks are massive, and a production threat in Brazil will be needed this winter to bring the bulls back to the table.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat is in a catch-22 situation in that U.S. ending stocks have risen the past 2 years to 828 MB, whereas global stocks have declined for 5 years to 256.6 million tons. Production in the EU and Russia has fallen, which could present some export opportunities, but competition from Australia, Canada, and Ukraine will persist. Last week, inspections were 12.7 MB and below the average of 16.0 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s projection of 825 MB. Currently, the export pace is running slightly beyond the level to achieve their forecast. Looking at the harvest of the spring crop, it is 31 percent complete compared to 35 percent a year ago and 36 percent for the average. The bottom line in wheat is that if corn and soybeans remain under the gun, a reduction in winter wheat acreage may be necessary to stimulate a recovery.
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