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Corn Outlook:
A bumper crop is expected in corn, which is currently being priced into values. What the market needs now to attract bullish interest is a pickup in demand. That may soon be forthcoming as the dollar has fallen nearly 5 percent since July and appears to be headed lower longer-term. Looking at exports, they have improved slightly since late July. Inspections last week were 35.2 MB with cumulative shipments at 2.0 BB. With only one week left in the marketing year, it looks doubtful of reaching USDA’s target of 2.250 BB. The bottom line in corn is that prices are approaching levels at which end users may extend longer-term coverage. However, it will take time to work through the existing supply.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans have been supported the past few sessions from hot temperatures that could possibly trim yield potential. However, even if there is a reduction in yield, stocks will still be excessive. Looking at exports, inspections last week were run of the mill at 15.1 MB. Cumulative shipments are 1.6 BB, and with only one week remaining in the marketing year, reaching USDA’s projection of 1.7 BB is probably doubtful. Last week, China took shipments of 2.6 MB, but they will likely improve next month. Meanwhile, exports to them have a history of peaking in November. The bottom line in soybeans is that a huge crop is in the making and exports must grow to offset the increase in stocks. However, that is the problem. During the past 3 years, our exports have declined 6.5 percent, while those of Brazil have risen 10 percent.
Wheat Outlook:
The dollar has been declining, which is beginning to offer support for wheat. Weakness in the dollar has helped exports as inspections last week were 19.7 MB and above the average of 15.8 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 825 MB. Currently, shipments are running ahead of the pace to reach their projection. Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest is complete and, in the bin, but harvest of the spring crop is in full swing at 51 percent done. The bottom line in wheat is that the fundamentals are slowly improving.
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