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Corn Outlook:
The jobs report last week indicates that the economy is slowing and, possibly, headed for a recession which could affect demand. This caused a meltdown in equities, but the grains shrugged off the news. Meanwhile, corn faces issues as weather has been nonthreatening for most of the growing season, and expectations are that the USDA will increase their yield estimate in the crop report on Monday. Last week, the rating fell one-point to 67 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition but is above the year ago rating of 57 percent and the 10-year average of 66 percent. Looking at exports, they have improved the past couple of weeks with inspections last week of 47.7 MB. USDA projects them at 2.225 BB but they are currently on track for 2.050 BB. The bottom line in corn is that traders are bearish, but much of the negative news has already been factored into values.
Bean Outlook
Weather has been nonthreatening the past several weeks, which has increased expectations that the USDA will raise their yield estimate for soybeans in next Monday’s crop report. Last week, the rating rose one-point to 68 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition and is above last year’s rating of 54 percent and the 10-year average of 63 percent. Although a sale to China was reported last week, the first in several weeks, inspections this week were unimpressive at 9.5 MB and below the average of 29.7 MB that must be shipped to meet USDA’s target of 1.7 MB. Currently, we are on track for shipments of 1.620 BB. The bottom line in soybeans is the bears continue to hold the upper hand and have thrown everything at the market but the kitchen sink.
Wheat Outlook:
The finish line of the winter wheat harvest is in sight as it is 88 percent complete. Meanwhile, harvest of the spring crop is just getting underway at 6 percent done versus 8 percent a year ago and 10 percent for the average. The export pace has improved the past couple of weeks with inspections last week of 16.2 MB. This is slightly above the average of 16.1 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s projection. Currently, we are on track for shipments of 780 MB. The bottom line in wheat is that global stocks are declining but the U.S. is the third largest exporter and faces plenty of competition.
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