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Corn Outlook:
Corn harvest is just starting, and storage could be a problem as a large crop looms. This is apparent from the USDA raising their yield estimate in the crop report to 183.6 bpa, and production to 15.186 BB, the second highest on record. Meanwhile, ending stocks are down 16 MB to 2.057 BB while world stocks are 1.8 million tons lower at 308.4 million. However, stocks are above the trade guess. Exports and usage were unchanged in the report as the USDA is waiting until October to make revisions. The bottom line in corn is that even with a reduction in stocks, they remain elevated. That said, usage must rise, or a production threat develops in South America to sustain a prolonged price gain.
Bean Outlook
USDA left their yield estimate for soybeans untouched at 53.2 bpa with production mostly unchanged at 4.586 BB. Ending stocks are down 10 MB to 550 MB, which was below the trade guess. Exports were unchanged for the reasons mentioned in corn. Meanwhile, world stocks are up 300,000 tons to 134.6 million. Private sources in Brazil are forecasting production for 2024-25 at 168.0 million tons, an increase of 14 percent from a year ago. The bottom line in soybeans is that for a sustained price gain to develop, exports and usage must rise dramatically, or a crop threat develop in Brazil.
Wheat Outlook:
Planting of the winter wheat crop is getting underway at 6 percent complete which is par for the average. Meanwhile, harvest of the spring crop is winding down at 85 percent done. Reports of Russian yields being lower than a year ago is offering support. In other developments, the USDA left their ending stocks estimate unchanged at 828 MB with world stocks rising 500,000 tons to 257.2 million. Exports were unchanged, but the U.S. will meet stiff competition from the forecast of exports from Australia rising 1.5 million tons, Canada 1.0 million tons, and Ukraine 1.0 million tons.
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