Corn Outlook: There are two tales in corn each having opposing fundamentals. Tight stocks and a strong cash market are supportive of old crop. However, new crop is a different story, as expectations are that 94 million acres will be planted this spring. If a trend line yield is realized, we could be staring[…]
Corn Outlook: Production cuts to South America’s corn crop appear to be factored into prices with traders now focusing on an increase in planted acres this spring. At the outlook conference on Thursday, the USDA reaffirmed its November baseline projection for corn planting in 2012 at 94 million acres. However, prospective plantings based upon[…]
Corn Outlook: The bullish enthusiasm for corn has cooled, as weather in South America is becoming less of a factor. In addition, traders are concerned about reduced ethanol demand and more wheat finding its way into feed rations. Looking ahead, attention is beginning to focus on planting intentions for 2012 and the potential increase[…]
Corn Outlook: The upside momentum has waned in corn futures as the market has apparently reached a level of equilibrium that factors in production losses in South America. Currently, Argentina’s production is forecast at 22.0 million tons, down 4.0 million from January. Brazil’s crop is pegged at 61.0 million, unchanged from last month. Meanwhile,[…]
Corn Outlook: A wetter pattern is forecast in Argentina this week, which will help late-planted corn. However, weather is becoming less of a factor as harvest has begun in northern Brazil. In the meantime, domestic basis levels are strong and providing underlying support. Additional support is sponsored from the rally in wheat. EU leaders[…]
Corn Outlook: For several weeks, weather in Argentina has been the hot topic in the corn market. The bulls are elated because of expected cuts in their production. Recently, private sources in Argentina lowered production prospects from 30 to 22 million tons. In the meantime, recent rainfall has stabilized the crop, but many believe[…]
Corn Outlook: Corn futures have been on a downhill roll since the crop report last week. Large traders were overly exuberant going into the report as the trend following funds bought 180 MB increasing their long position to 755 MB. Right now, those positions are under water with the funds jumping ship. Traders are[…]
Corn Outlook: Corn futures rose sharply from mid December through early January amid concerns of dryness in South America and expectations that the January Crop Production and Supply-Demand report would be friendly. Emotions soared that heat damage to early-planted corn in Argentina is irreversible. Large traders turned bullish during this period, as the long[…]
Corn Outlook: Traders celebrated when they returned from the New Year holiday as the stock market surged and the grains rallied. Optimism regarding Europe led to the strength in equities. While pumping money into their financial system to resolve the debt crisis is a band-aid measure, it does not fix the problem. However, cutting[…]
Corn Outlook: Very little news is coming out of Europe, which has prompted speculators to shift their focus to weather in South America rather than the debt crisis. Conditions are dryer than normal, especially in Argentina, which has created a surge in grain futures. During the holidays, volume tends to be thin as commercial[…]