Corn Outlook: The upside momentum has waned in corn futures as the market has apparently reached a level of equilibrium that factors in production losses in South America. Currently, Argentina’s production is forecast at 22.0 million tons, down 4.0 million from January. Brazil’s crop is pegged at 61.0 million, unchanged from last month. Meanwhile,[…]
Corn Outlook: A wetter pattern is forecast in Argentina this week, which will help late-planted corn. However, weather is becoming less of a factor as harvest has begun in northern Brazil. In the meantime, domestic basis levels are strong and providing underlying support. Additional support is sponsored from the rally in wheat. EU leaders[…]
Corn Outlook: For several weeks, weather in Argentina has been the hot topic in the corn market. The bulls are elated because of expected cuts in their production. Recently, private sources in Argentina lowered production prospects from 30 to 22 million tons. In the meantime, recent rainfall has stabilized the crop, but many believe[…]
Corn Outlook: Corn futures have been on a downhill roll since the crop report last week. Large traders were overly exuberant going into the report as the trend following funds bought 180 MB increasing their long position to 755 MB. Right now, those positions are under water with the funds jumping ship. Traders are[…]
Corn Outlook: Corn futures rose sharply from mid December through early January amid concerns of dryness in South America and expectations that the January Crop Production and Supply-Demand report would be friendly. Emotions soared that heat damage to early-planted corn in Argentina is irreversible. Large traders turned bullish during this period, as the long[…]
Corn Outlook: Traders celebrated when they returned from the New Year holiday as the stock market surged and the grains rallied. Optimism regarding Europe led to the strength in equities. While pumping money into their financial system to resolve the debt crisis is a band-aid measure, it does not fix the problem. However, cutting[…]
Corn Outlook: Very little news is coming out of Europe, which has prompted speculators to shift their focus to weather in South America rather than the debt crisis. Conditions are dryer than normal, especially in Argentina, which has created a surge in grain futures. During the holidays, volume tends to be thin as commercial[…]
Corn Outlook: Grain futures can be listless during the holidays but, at times, erratic because of lack of liquidity and year-end position squaring as we are seeing now. Sometimes, it does not require much news to push prices to an extreme. For example, recent dryness in South America sparked an 8.4 percent rise in[…]
Corn Outlook: The ship for the grains is listing, and the funds are bailing. Although domestic stocks of corn are tight and dryness is creeping into South America, they are overshadowed by other issues. World stocks are on the upswing, China’s production is rebounding, and U.S. exports face stiff competition from the southern hemisphere. […]
Corn Outlook: Grain futures are struggling amid uncertainty surrounding the European debt crisis and poor exports. Currently, traders are unsure which way to turn going into the EU summit meeting on Thursday-Friday. Anxiety is high as there are fifteen countries facing a potential credit rating downgrade. The reality is there is no quick fix[…]